How New Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Supply Chains — and What Leaders Can Do About It

❗ The Tariff Shockwave

Recent U.S. tariff proposals targeting Canadian and Mexican imports have reignited anxiety across the supply chain community. From metals to fresh produce, industries are bracing for price shocks. David lays out the stakes early:

“Two-thirds of the aluminum we use comes from Canada. Ninety percent of the scrap metal for our smelters? From Mexico. Not to mention avocados, berries, and peppers—all now at risk.”

And it doesn’t stop there. A 25% tariff on Irish whiskey could jeopardize up to 30,000 jobs in the spirits industry, according to the Distilled Spirits Council.

The breadth of impact is stunning—and it’s just beginning.

🔄 Uncertainty Is the Hardest Part

Supply chain disruptions aren’t new. But this round comes with a twist: no one can pin down what’s actually happening. One day, tariffs are imminent. The next, they’re off the table.

“It’s not a definitive,” David says. “You can’t plan around it because it changes daily. This week? Hurry up and wait.”

John agrees, pointing out that the speed and unpredictability of policy shifts make long-term commitments risky—even dangerous. Strategic moves like reshoring or shifting sourcing might be rendered obsolete within hours of being made.

🕸️ Beyond Tier 1: The Supplier Web

One of the biggest blind spots companies face right now? Assuming that a U.S.-based supplier is insulated from global trade issues.

“Your supplier might say, ‘We source entirely from the U.S.,’” John explains. “But then it turns out their suppliers depend on materials from Mexico or China.”

Understanding the full multi-tier web of your supply chain is no longer a nice-to-have—it’s a necessity.

🧩 Optionality > Optimization

For decades, supply chains were built for efficiency. Today, the name of the game is optionality.

“The answer used to be: pull out of China and shift to somewhere else. But what if ‘somewhere else’ becomes the next target for tariffs?” John warns.

Building a portfolio of sourcing options is key. It’s not about predicting the future—it’s about being ready for multiple futures.

🤖 Will Technology Save Us?

Can AI solve the tariff problem? Not exactly. But it can help leaders see around corners.

John explains: “AI helps us process more complexity, faster. It lets us simulate different sourcing models or assess downstream impacts of trade changes.”

David adds: “I’m even considering building an AI bot to monitor Bloomberg and predict policy shifts.”

Technology can’t fix trade policy—but it can make your supply chain smarter and more responsive.

📉 Freight Prices, Demand Shifts, and Knock-On Effects

New trade rules like changes to the de minimis threshold are already shaking up freight markets. Cargo capacity from China has increased, dropping prices and sending shippers scrambling to lock in lower rates.

“These knock-on effects happen fast,” David notes. “And they often hit in places we’re not even watching yet.”

John adds, “We’re becoming day traders in our sourcing strategy—but that’s not sustainable. We need new muscles to manage this disruption.”

💡 What Supply Chain Leaders Should Do Now

Here’s the consensus from David and John:

Don’t make knee-jerk changes. Let policy evolve before shifting core operations.

Build long-term resilience. Optionality, diversified sourcing, and scenario planning are essential.

Embrace technology. Use AI and analytics to model risks, monitor developments, and act quickly.

Think deeper. Look beyond Tier 1 suppliers and understand the full network impact.

Train your team. Prepare for a world where disruption is a constant, not an anomaly.