Playing Offense in a Trade War: The Hidden Upside of Tariffs for Europe and Asia

🔍 Summary

As the U.S. government places a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs—while keeping a steep 125% tariff on China—many supply chain leaders are breathing a cautious sigh of relief.

But in boardrooms across Europe and Asia, the mood is different.

While U.S. firms are stuck waiting, assessing, and scenario-planning, global competitors are seizing the moment—turning crisis into competitive advantage.

🔄 A Shift in Perspective

For the past month, much of the tariff conversation has focused on U.S. companies:

• How to protect margins

• How to pass costs on to consumers

• How to avoid making premature strategic moves

But as Matt Spooner shared in our latest News Digest conversation, the global view is very different.

“If your biggest competitor in Asia was a U.S. company, they’ve now disappeared. That’s a huge opportunity.”

In this article, we unpack why some companies are suddenly playing offense—and how long-term thinking, automation, and smart network design will separate the winners from the rest.

🧭 5 Global Shifts Supply Chain Leaders Must Watch

1. Tariffs as a Strategic Advantage (Yes, Really)

Tariffs may be harming U.S. exports, but they’ve opened up entire market segments abroad. Companies based in Europe and Asia now have a rare window to gain share in the Americas, Southeast Asia, and Africa—without direct U.S. competition.

2. Inflation Is Decoupling Across Regions

For the first time in decades, inflation is diverging geographically.

• U.S. prices may rise due to import costs

• European and Asian producers could benefit from price suppression due to excess capacity in China

“We’ve never seen this inflation dynamic split between markets. It changes everything.” – Matt Spooner

3. Automation Accelerates—Again

Reshoring is back in the headlines—but without labor, it’s just theory. Companies like ABB, with deep U.S. manufacturing and robotics capabilities, are poised to see a wave of investment as companies look to scale production without headcount.

4. AI Can’t Solve This One Alone

While AI dominates headlines, Matt and John agree: this is not a situation where AI can save the day.

“These are structural, geopolitical, long-horizon decisions. You need experienced supply chain leaders—not just algorithms.”

Companies must invest in strategic scenario planning that goes beyond short-term risk management and builds long-term resilience.

5. Supply Chain Network Visibility Is No Longer Optional

Only 4% of companies have visibility beyond Tier 3 in their networks. In a tariff-driven world, that’s a massive vulnerability.

“This reshapes global supply chain networks. Most companies simply aren’t ready.”

Now is the time to invest in mapping your upstream suppliers—and in rethinking where and how value flows through your global supply chain.

⏳ Don’t Mistake the Pause for a Plateau

Yes, the U.S. has temporarily softened its stance.

But as Matt warns, the 10% universal tariff still in place is not low—and with global capital costs rising and uncertainty around Mexico and Canada, the clock is ticking.

“If this escalates again in 90 days, you’ll wish you had started planning today.”

🎯 Final Thought

While the trade war continues to create tension, it also creates opportunity.
The companies that treat this as a chance to rethink strategy, realign their networks, and invest in smart execution will come out ahead.

The question is: will your organization be one of them?